As Predicted: Ron Tober Rides off into Sunset
As you've probably heard by now, Charlotte Area Transit System (CATS) CEO Ron Tober is retiring December 21. It's exactly what I predicted would happen on multiple occasions last year on the Citizen Servatius Show on NewsTalk 1110 WBT. I said that Tober would leave within six months of the opening of the South Boulevard light rail line, when the true costs of building and operating a rail line would finally become known to the public.
Today, Tober announced he plans to retire less than a month after the planned Nov. 26 opening date for part of the line. Here's why Tober's in such a great hurry to scram. The great unknowns on this line aren't just its final cost, which won't come in until after it starts running in November, but also its operating costs and ridership numbers.
After massive construction cost overruns, the next big fiasco with many rail lines is the cost of operating of the line. It is also typically several times what was projected.
There are signs that could happen here, too. By 2002, projected ridership subsidization costs on the South Boulevard line had already more than doubled from initial 1998 estimates of $5.9 million to $12.8 million. Just how high they'll go once the line actually opens is anyone's guess, but given CATS' track record, you can be sure they will be through the roof.
Of course, it wouldn't surprise me if Tober were asked to leave by the uptown crowd, namely the suits at the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce, on the theory that that might help them defeat the repeal of the half cent sales tax for mass transit, which voters will consider in November. Tober does carry a lot of baggage. But they've also had months to drop kick Tober since the transit tax repeal campaigners got the signatures they needed to put this on the ballot. Tober could have been long gone and retired by now had they wanted to push him off the train. But maybe they are finally feeling the heat. Regardless, the timing of Tober's planned departure doesn't bode well for the trains.
Tober knows what the real numbers on light rail look like, and come December, so will we.
Is it possible...at all...that Tober is retiring because he wants to? He is 60, and has put up with a lot (granted, much of it brought on himself)in the past few years.
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Sure it's possible he's leaving because he wants to. In fact, it's likely. The question, however, is WHY he wants to. Age is not likely to be the answer (I realize that to someone who is 30 or 40 or so, 60 may seem old. Trust me: it's not.)
"Retirement" was the vehicle by which Pughsley bailed out while attempting to save face, and it may well be here as well. Look at it this way: if he turns up gainfully employed,( as did ol' Doc Pughsley) you can assume that he wasn't just wanting to gracefully transition to his golden years.
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If Tober was asked to leave, recent history might suggest why. The political fallout from the arena all pretty much landed on Lynn Wheeler, while McCrory and everyone else who supported it went unscathed.
With Syfert gone, and now Tober on the way, there isn't a single person against whom someone can cast a vote for repeal (McCrory, I believe, will still be fine). The pro-train forces are much more vague without them.
Of course, they may underestimate the fact that Tober and Syfert are merely incompetent, whereas Wheeler was a truly grating personality who had genuinely worn out her welcome with the public.
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Let's see now...it boils down to:
9.5 miles
9 stops
45 minute commute (not inc. parking)
12+ million operating costs???
If we could only duplicate that efficiency with the other "corridors" we'd be bankrupt yesterday. Perfect example of Govco Gone Wild.
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Approximately $65 million of the $85 million transit tax pays for the current bus service. The remaining $20 million pays for studies, construction, and administrative costs. Even if the current operating estimate is accurate, where is the money coming from? Can you spell tax increase ?
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